Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Kilmarnock and 2.16 for Celtic, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.

Model pick

Celtic to Win

59.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 2.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Kilmarnock win20%

Draw20%

Celtic win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–29.7%
1–19.0%
0–28.1%
0–17.5%
1–37.0%

Why the model likes this

Celtic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celtic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 20% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Kilmarnock and 2.16 for Celtic, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Kilmarnock

Celtic

2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premiership table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heart Of Midlothian	33	21	7	5	30	70
2	Rangers	33	19	12	2	35	69
3	Celtic	33	21	4	8	24	67
4	Motherwell	33	14	12	7	23	54
5	Hibernian	33	13	12	8	14	51
6	Falkirk	33	13	7	13	-3	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	9	13	11	-9	40
8	Aberdeen	33	9	6	18	-15	33
9	Dundee	33	8	9	16	-19	33
10	ST Mirren	33	7	9	17	-21	30
11	Kilmarnock	33	6	10	17	-28	28
12	Livingston	33	1	13	19	-31	16
1	Celtic	38	26	4	8	32	82
2	Heart Of Midlothian	38	24	8	6	33	80
3	Rangers	38	20	12	6	33	72
4	Motherwell	38	16	13	9	23	61
5	Hibernian	38	15	12	11	14	57
6	Falkirk	38	14	7	17	-12	49
1	Dundee Utd	38	10	15	13	-11	45
2	Dundee	38	11	9	18	-19	42
3	Aberdeen	38	11	7	20	-15	40
4	Kilmarnock	38	10	10	18	-18	40
5	ST Mirren	38	8	10	20	-25	34
6	Livingston	38	2	15	21	-35	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.