Raiffeisen Arena · Referee Sebastian Gishamer, Austria · Analysis updated 23:45 UTC
Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.78 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Lask Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws roughly 25% of the time.
Model pick
Lask Linz to Win
74.9% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 3–09.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.6%
Why the model likes this
Lask Linz home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lask Linz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Lask Linz and 0.78 for Grazer AK, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 50%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Lask Linz
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Ried · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2-0 (W)
Grazer AK
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Rapid Vienna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | SCR Altach | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | TSV Hartberg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.