Raiffeisen Arena · Referee Sebastian Gishamer, Austria · Analysis updated 03:43 UTC
Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.09 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.82 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Lask Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lask Linz win
82.0% probability
Expected goals
3.09 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lask Linz home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Grazer AK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lask Linz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 11% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.09 goals for Lask Linz and 0.82 for Grazer AK, a combined 3.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.8%
- 4–07.6%
Recent form
Lask Linz
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Vienna · 0-2 (L)
Grazer AK
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 24 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Ried | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 10 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Austria Lustenau | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lask Linz win, at 82.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.