Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.25 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Lech Poznan to Win

49.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lech Poznan win49%

Draw24%

Piast Gliwice win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.5%
1–08.7%
2–07.6%
1–26.8%

Why the model likes this

Lech Poznan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.25 for Piast Gliwice, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Lech Poznan

2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KI Klaksvik · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KI Klaksvik · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 0-3 (L)

Piast Gliwice

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.