Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.25 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lech Poznan win

49.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lech Poznan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Piast Gliwice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.25 for Piast Gliwice, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lech Poznan win49%

Draw24%

Piast Gliwice win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.5%
1–08.7%
2–07.6%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Lech Poznan

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)

Piast Gliwice

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ekstraklasa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	8	3	1	10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	8	1	1	18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	7	3	1	10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	6	5	0	13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	6	3	3	4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	6	2	4	4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	5	4	3	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	6	0	6	5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	5	3	4	-4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	3	4	5	-4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	4	0	6	-4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	3	3	6	-5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	1	8	3	-1	11
15	Slask Wroclaw	12	2	3	7	-6	9
16	Wieczysta Kraków	12	2	2	8	-7	8
17	Radomiak Radom	12	2	2	8	-16	8
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	2	0	10	-12	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lech Poznan win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.