Enea Poznań · Referee Patryk Gryckiewicz, Poland · Analysis updated 23:54 UTC
Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.25 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Lech Poznan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Lech Poznan to Win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.8%
Why the model likes this
Lech Poznan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lech Poznan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.25 for Piast Gliwice, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Lech Poznan
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KI Klaksvik · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KI Klaksvik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 0-3 (L)
Piast Gliwice
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.