Longford Town vs Treaty United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Longford Town and 0.90 for Treaty United, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Longford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Longford Town to Win

52.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.56 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Longford Town win53%

Draw26%

Treaty United win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.4%
1–112.0%
2–010.4%
2–19.4%
0–08.6%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Longford Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Longford Town and 0.90 for Treaty United, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Longford Town to Win is the headline pick at 53% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Longford Town

Treaty United

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	27	20	3	4	34	63
2	Bray Wanderers	27	12	7	8	17	43
3	UCD	27	13	4	10	14	43
4	Longford Town	27	10	7	10	1	37
5	Cobh Ramblers	27	11	4	12	-8	37
6	Kerry	27	9	8	10	1	35
7	Wexford	27	9	7	11	-7	34
8	Athlone Town	27	8	7	12	-7	31
9	Treaty United	27	7	8	12	-13	29
10	Finn Harps	27	5	7	15	-32	22

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.