Bishopsgate · Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Longford Town vs Treaty United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.03 for Treaty United, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Longford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Longford Town win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Longford Town home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Treaty United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Longford Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Longford Town and 1.03 for Treaty United, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Longford Town
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wexford · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 1-0 (W)
Treaty United
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Athlone Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T19:15:00.000Z · H vs UCD · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Finn Harps · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bray Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Longford Town · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 75 |
| 2 | UCD | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 56 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 54 |
| 4 | Kerry FC | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 52 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 49 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -14 | 42 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -16 | 42 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 36 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -37 | 28 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Longford Town win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.