Eleda Stadion · Analysis updated 02:41 UTC
Malmö FF W vs Hammarby W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Malmö FF W and 1.15 for Hammarby W, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Hammarby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Hammarby W or Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–27.7%
Why the model likes this
Malmö FF W home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Hammarby W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 33% / 29% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Malmö FF W and 1.15 for Hammarby W, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Malmö FF W
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Uppsala W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vålerenga W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Piteå W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vittsjö W · 0-1 (L)
Hammarby W
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Apolonia Fier W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Växjö W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Norrköping W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Piteå W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Damallsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Häcken W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 39 |
| 2 | Hammarby W | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 34 |
| 3 | Malmö FF W | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 25 |
| 4 | AIK W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | Eskilstuna United W | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 23 |
| 6 | Vittsjö W | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 7 | Kristianstad W | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 8 | Piteå W | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 | Brommapojkarna W | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -13 | 15 |
| 10 | Växjö W | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 14 |
| 11 | Djurgården W | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Norrköping W | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Rosengård W | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Uppsala W | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -30 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.