Malmö FF W vs Hammarby W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Malmö FF W and 1.58 for Hammarby W, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Hammarby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malmö FF W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Malmö FF W and 1.58 for Hammarby W, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Malmö FF W win35%

Draw24%

Hammarby W win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–28.7%
2–18.0%
0–17.6%
1–07.0%

Recent form

Malmö FF W

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pölten W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Brommapojkarna W · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-23T16:45:00.000Z · A vs St. Pölten W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgården W · 3-0 (W)

Hammarby W

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brommapojkarna W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilstuna United W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK W · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Damallsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Häcken W	22	20	1	1	60	61
2	Hammarby W	22	17	2	3	38	53
3	Malmö FF W	22	12	6	4	27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	10	5	7	8	35
5	AIK W	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	9	5	8	1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	10	2	10	-7	32
8	Djurgården W	22	8	3	11	-6	27
9	Eskilstuna United W	22	8	3	11	-10	27
10	Piteå W	22	6	6	10	-7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	6	5	11	-3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	4	8	10	-17	20
13	Växjö W	22	5	3	14	-20	18
14	Uppsala W	22	1	3	18	-64	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.