Motor Lublin Arena · Analysis updated 23:54 UTC
Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.79 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 4.11. That distribution gives Motor Lublin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Motor Lublin to Win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.8%
- 3–16.1%
- 1–26.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Motor Lublin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.79 for Piast Gliwice, a combined 4.11 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Motor Lublin to Win is the headline pick at 50% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Motor Lublin
Piast Gliwice
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-20T17:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 2-1 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-08-16T12:45:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 0-0 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 1-4 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-11-08T17:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-2 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.