Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.18 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Motor Lublin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Motor Lublin or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Motor Lublin win44%

Draw26%

Piast Gliwice win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Motor Lublin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.18 for Piast Gliwice, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Motor Lublin or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Motor Lublin

Piast Gliwice

Head-to-head

2026-02-20T17:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 2-1 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)
2025-08-16T12:45:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 0-0 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)
2025-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 1-4 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)
2024-11-08T17:00:00.000Z · Motor Lublin 3-2 Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.