MTK Budapest II vs Pécsi MFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for MTK Budapest II and 2.03 for Pécsi MFC, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Pécsi MFC to Win

46.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.66 – 2.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

MTK Budapest II win32%

Draw21%

Pécsi MFC win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–28.6%
1–18.4%
2–27.1%
2–17.0%
1–35.8%

Why the model likes this

Pécsi MFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for MTK Budapest II and 2.03 for Pécsi MFC, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

MTK Budapest II

Pécsi MFC

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sárbogárd · 6-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fehérvár FC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 1-1 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)
2025-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 1-1 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)
2025-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 2-1 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)
2024-10-27T12:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 2-4 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)

NB III - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pécsi MFC	4	4	0	0	13	12
2	Kaposvar	3	3	0	0	11	9
3	PTE-PEAC	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Ferencváros II	4	2	1	1	2	7
5	Budafoki LC	4	2	1	1	1	7
6	Budaörs	4	2	1	1	-4	7
7	MTK Budapest II	4	2	0	2	8	6
8	Iváncsa	3	2	0	1	4	6
9	Érdi VSE	3	1	2	0	2	5
10	Siofok	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Dunaharaszti MTK	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Paksi SE II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
13	Majosi	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	-3	0
15	Sárbogárd	3	0	0	3	-8	0
16	Szekszárd	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.