MTK Budapest II vs Pécsi MFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for MTK Budapest II and 2.41 for Pécsi MFC, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pécsi MFC win

66.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 2.41

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MTK Budapest II home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pécsi MFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for MTK Budapest II and 2.41 for Pécsi MFC, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

MTK Budapest II win16%

Draw18%

Pécsi MFC win66%

Double chance 1X

34%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–29.5%
0–28.6%
1–17.9%
1–37.7%
0–17.2%

Recent form

MTK Budapest II

2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Paksi SE II · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-0 (W)

Pécsi MFC

2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaposvar · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 7-0 (W)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 1-1 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)
2025-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 1-1 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)
2025-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 2-1 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)
2024-10-27T12:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest II 2-4 Pécsi MFC (NB III - Southwest)

NB III - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pécsi MFC	12	11	1	0	30	34
2	Kaposvar	11	7	1	3	17	22
3	Ferencváros II	11	6	3	2	11	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	4	20
5	Iváncsa	11	6	0	5	3	18
6	Majosi	11	5	3	3	1	18
7	Budafoki LC	11	5	2	4	3	17
8	PTE-PEAC	11	4	4	3	1	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	5	0	5	6	15
10	Érdi VSE	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Siofok	11	4	2	5	3	14
12	Budaörs	11	3	3	5	-13	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	1	4	6	-4	7
14	Sárbogárd	11	1	2	8	-22	5
15	Szekszárd	11	0	0	11	-40	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pécsi MFC win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.