· Analysis updated 02:44 UTC
Naftagas vs Metalac GM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Naftagas and 1.24 for Metalac GM, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Naftagas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Naftagas or Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.5%
Why the model likes this
Naftagas home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naftagas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Naftagas and 1.24 for Metalac GM, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Naftagas
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs OFK Vršac · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sloboda DT · 0-2 (L)
Metalac GM
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semendrija 1924 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Napredak | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | TSC Backa Topola | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Dubočica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Borac Cacak | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | OFK Vršac | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Javor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Jedinstvo Ub | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Grafičar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Metalac GM | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Teleoptik | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Loznica | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Naftagas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | FK Vozdovac | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.