Gradski Stadion Senta · Analysis updated 12:15 UTC
Naftagas vs Metalac GM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Naftagas and 0.98 for Metalac GM, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Naftagas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Naftagas win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naftagas home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metalac GM away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naftagas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Naftagas and 0.98 for Metalac GM, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 71.4% | 73.2% | 1.37 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.2% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.7% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.7% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 74.9% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 53.7% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Naftagas
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Ub · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Javor · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleoptik · 1-1 (D)
Metalac GM
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Vršac · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Bor 1919 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Naftagas win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.