World · UEFA Champions League · Play-offs19:00

19:00 UTC

Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Goffertstadion · Analysis updated 21:55 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.62 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives NEC Nijmegen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

NEC Nijmegen or Draw

61.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.62

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

NEC Nijmegen win38%
Draw23%
Bodo/Glimt win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams to score64%

Correct score

  • 1–110.3%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 2–26.7%
  • 0–16.3%

Why the model likes this

  • NEC Nijmegen home form

    6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates NEC Nijmegen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.62 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.62 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

MarketSelectionOddsBookmaker
Match ResultHome2.4810Bet
Match ResultDraw3.8510Bet
Match ResultAway2.4810Bet
GoalsOver 1.51.1410Bet
GoalsUnder 1.55.5010Bet
GoalsOver 2.51.4810Bet
GoalsUnder 2.52.6010Bet
GoalsOver 3.52.2010Bet
GoalsUnder 3.51.6510Bet
GoalsOver 4.53.7010Bet
GoalsUnder 4.51.2510Bet
GoalsOver 5.56.5010Bet
GoalsUnder 5.51.1010Bet
BTTSYes1.4010Bet
BTTSNo2.6510Bet
Double ChanceHome/Draw1.5010Bet
Double ChanceHome/Away1.2210Bet
Double ChanceDraw/Away1.5010Bet

Recent form

NEC Nijmegen

  • 2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 4-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-0 (D)
  • 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-2 (L)

Bodo/Glimt

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.