Goffertstadion · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
NEC Nijmegen vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.75 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives NEC Nijmegen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
NEC Nijmegen or Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEC Nijmegen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.75 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
NEC Nijmegen or Draw is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen
Bodo/Glimt
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.