Allianz Riviera · Analysis updated 21:23 UTC
Nice vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Nice and 1.21 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Nice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Nice or Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–07.6%
Why the model likes this
Nice home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Nice and 1.21 for Lorient, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.12 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.45 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.75 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 9.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 5.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.14 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.62 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.15 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Nice
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 4-0 (W)
Lorient
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auxerre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Angers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Lorient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Nice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Marseille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Paris FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Paris Saint Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Toulouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Estac Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.