Nice vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Nice and 0.99 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Nice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.04 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nice home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lorient away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nice win36%

Draw31%

Lorient win34%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–113.5%
0–013.2%
0–113.0%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Nice

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)

Lorient

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-04T19:30:00.000Z · Nice 0-0 Lorient (Coupe de France)
2026-02-22T16:15:00.000Z · Nice 3-3 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2025-11-30T16:15:00.000Z · Nice 1-3 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2024-04-19T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 3-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2023-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2023-03-19T14:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2022-10-30T16:05:00.000Z · Nice 2-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2022-04-17T11:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2021-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 0-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2021-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	1	9
8	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
15	Le Mans	7	1	3	3	-5	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.