Nocerina vs Ischia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Nocerina and 0.76 for Ischia, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Nocerina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Nocerina to Win

51.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nocerina win51%

Draw28%

Ischia win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.2%
1–112.4%
0–011.8%
2–011.1%
0–19.0%

Why the model likes this

Ischia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nocerina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Nocerina and 0.76 for Ischia, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Nocerina

Ischia

2026-07-31T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Juve Stabia · 1-5 (L)
2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olbia · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Montespaccato · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Palmese · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone G table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scafatese	34	27	6	1	52	87
2	Trastevere	34	17	9	8	18	60
3	Monastir	34	15	8	11	7	53
4	Flaminia	34	13	12	9	16	51
5	Albalonga	34	14	8	12	1	50
6	Latte Dolce	34	14	6	14	0	48
7	Valmontone	34	14	6	14	-1	48
8	Nocerina	34	11	14	9	3	47
9	Sarrabus Ogliastra	34	12	10	12	-4	46
10	Budoni	34	12	9	13	2	45
11	USD Palmese	34	11	12	11	-2	45
12	Atletico Lodigiani	34	11	11	12	3	44
13	Ischia	34	12	7	15	-16	43
14	Anzio	34	10	11	13	-5	41
15	Olbia	34	8	14	12	-12	38
16	Real Monterotondo	34	10	6	18	-19	36
17	Montespaccato	34	6	12	16	-11	30
18	Cassino	34	4	9	21	-32	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.