Stadio San Francesco · Analysis updated 17:37 UTC
Nocerina vs Ischia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nocerina and 0.65 for Ischia, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Nocerina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nocerina win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nocerina home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ischia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.9%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–110.2%
Recent form
Nocerina
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bisceglie · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Manfredonia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebolitana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 0-1 (L)
Ischia
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebolitana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bisceglie · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nardò · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 3-2 Ischia (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 0-1 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-2 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2025-02-23T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-0 Ischia (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-11-06T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-2 Ischia (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2024-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 2-0 Ischia (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-0 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2023-12-20T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-1 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 3-2 Ischia (Coppa Italia Serie D)
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Monastir | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Trastevere | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 15 |
| 5 | Paganese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Unipomezia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Ossese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Albalonga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Aranova | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Anzio | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Afragolese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Città di Anagni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Venafro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Budoni | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Latte Dolce | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nocerina win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.