Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.17 for Leeds, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Nottingham Forest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Nottingham Forest or Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Nottingham Forest win43%

Draw26%

Leeds win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–010.6%
2–18.9%
0–18.7%
2–07.6%

Why the model likes this

Nottingham Forest home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nottingham Forest to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.17 for Leeds, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	2.20	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	3.35	10Bet
Match Result	Away	3.15	10Bet
Goals	Over 1.5	1.30	10Bet
Goals	Under 1.5	3.45	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	1.90	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	1.85	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	3.25	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.33	10Bet
Goals	Over 0.5	1.05	10Bet
Goals	Under 0.5	9.00	10Bet
Goals	Over 4.5	6.25	10Bet
Goals	Under 4.5	1.11	10Bet
BTTS	Yes	1.70	10Bet
BTTS	No	2.10	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.35	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.25	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.65	10Bet

Recent form

Nottingham Forest

2026-08-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-1 (W)

Leeds

Head-to-head

2026-02-06T20:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-3 Leeds (Premier League)
2025-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds (Premier League)
2023-07-27T18:45:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-04-04T18:45:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-2 Leeds (Premier League)
2023-02-05T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-0 Leeds (Premier League)
2020-02-08T17:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 2-0 Leeds (Championship)
2019-08-10T11:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds (Championship)
2019-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 4-2 Leeds (Championship)
2018-10-27T16:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds (Championship)
2018-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-0 Leeds (Championship)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.