Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.22 for Leeds, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Leeds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.96 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nottingham Forest home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leeds away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nottingham Forest win29%

Draw29%

Leeds win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–113.8%
1–113.2%
0–011.3%
1–010.9%
0–28.4%

Recent form

Nottingham Forest

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)

Leeds

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds (Premier League)
2026-02-06T20:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-3 Leeds (Premier League)
2025-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds (Premier League)
2023-07-27T18:45:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-04-04T18:45:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-2 Leeds (Premier League)
2023-02-05T14:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-0 Leeds (Premier League)
2020-02-08T17:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 2-0 Leeds (Championship)
2019-08-10T11:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds (Championship)
2019-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 4-2 Leeds (Championship)
2018-10-27T16:30:00.000Z · Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds (Championship)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.