Olimpia Elbląg vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.18 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Olimpia Elbląg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Olimpia Elbląg or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Olimpia Elbląg win44%

Draw26%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Olimpia Elbląg home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpia Elbląg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.18 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Olimpia Elbląg

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wda Świecie · 1-1 (D)

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Elbląg · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Elbląg · 0-2 (L)
2025-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · Olimpia Elbląg 4-2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (III Liga - Group 1)
2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · Olimpia Elbląg 2-0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-07-14T12:00:00.000Z · Olimpia Elbląg 1-2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (Friendlies Clubs)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.