Stadion Miejski · Analysis updated 04:59 UTC
Olimpia Elbląg vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.42 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Olimpia Elbląg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
Olimpia Elbląg to Win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 2–06.2%
Why the model likes this
Olimpia Elbląg home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olimpia Elbląg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.42 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Olimpia Elbląg
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wda Świecie · 1-1 (D)
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Elbląg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Elbląg · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · Olimpia Elbląg 4-2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · Olimpia Elbląg 2-0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-14T12:00:00.000Z · Olimpia Elbląg 1-2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (Friendlies Clubs)
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Pelikan Łowicz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Swit | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Wigry Suwałki | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Olimpia Elbląg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Widzew II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Warta Sieradz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Mławianka Mława | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | ŁKS Łódź II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Łomża | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Troszyn | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.