Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Orlando City SC and 1.80 for Chicago Fire, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Chicago Fire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Chicago Fire or Draw

61.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Orlando City SC win39%

Draw22%

Chicago Fire win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.0%
1–28.1%
2–17.9%
2–27.1%
0–15.0%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Chicago Fire to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 39% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.80 for Chicago Fire, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Chicago Fire or Draw is the headline pick at 62% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Orlando City SC

Chicago Fire

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	3	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	-5	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	21	40
2	Inter Miami	18	11	5	2	13	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	5	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	1	26
7	Charlotte	18	7	4	7	2	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	-10	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	-3	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	-17	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	-2	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	-8	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	-11	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	3	3	12	-14	12

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.