USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 2023:30

1 – 2

Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Exploria Stadium · Referee Rosendo Mendoza, USA · Analysis updated 12:18 UTC

Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Orlando City SC and 1.82 for Chicago Fire, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Chicago Fire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.82

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orlando City SC home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chicago Fire away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Orlando City SC win36%

Draw22%

Chicago Fire win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.2%
1–28.4%
2–17.8%
2–27.1%
0–15.5%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.83	51.6%	53.7%	1.86	+2.1
Match result	Home	2.70	34.7%	36.0%	2.78	+1.3
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.62	57.3%	58.2%	1.72	+0.9
Goals	Under 2.5	3.00	31.5%	32.1%	3.12	+0.6
Both teams to score	No	2.95	31.4%	31.8%	3.14	+0.4
Match result	Away	2.25	41.6%	41.8%	2.39	+0.2
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.45	64.0%	64.0%	1.56	-0.0
Both teams to score	Yes	1.35	68.6%	68.2%	1.47	-0.4
Goals	Over 2.5	1.38	68.5%	67.9%	1.47	-0.6
Double chance	Home/Away	1.18	78.7%	77.8%	1.29	-0.9
Match result	Draw	3.95	23.7%	22.2%	4.50	-1.5
Goals	Over 3.5	1.95	48.4%	46.3%	2.16	-2.1

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Orlando City SC

2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Toronto FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 2-4 (L)

Chicago Fire

2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-19T23:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 1-2 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-23T00:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 1-3 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 1-3 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04T00:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 0-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2024-06-22T23:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 4-2 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2024-05-30T00:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 1-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2023-08-21T00:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 3-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2023-07-01T23:30:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 3-1 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2022-04-09T17:00:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 1-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)
2022-03-05T23:00:00.000Z · Orlando City SC 0-0 Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	-4	37
12	San Diego	31	8	11	12	-3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	7	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.