Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.76 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.

Model pick

Palmeiras to Win

63.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.84 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Palmeiras win63%

Draw22%

Atletico-MG win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.6%
2–012.5%
1–110.4%
2–19.6%
3–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Palmeiras home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Palmeiras and 0.76 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

Palmeiras

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 4-0 (W)

Atletico-MG

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	22	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	5	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
8	RB Bragantino	21	9	4	8	4	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.