Nubank Parque · Referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil · Analysis updated 23:04 UTC
Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.87 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Palmeiras win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Why the model likes this
Palmeiras home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico-MG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Palmeiras and 0.87 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Palmeiras
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)
Atletico-MG
- 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 25 |
| 16 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 17 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 18 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -11 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | -23 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.