Stadion Miejski · Analysis updated 03:54 UTC
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 0.87 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to Win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–19.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 0.87 for Nieciecza, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to Win is the headline pick at 50% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Nieciecza
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Chrobry Głogów | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Arka Gdynia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Odra Opole | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Pogoń Siedlce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Podbeskidzie | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruch Chorzów | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Stal Rzeszów | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.