Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.00 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nieciecza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.00 for Nieciecza, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win47%

Draw27%

Nieciecza win27%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–112.6%
2–09.0%
2–19.0%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-7 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)

Nieciecza

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Mielec · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-01T17:47:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	5	2	4	-5	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
12	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
14	Pogoń Siedlce	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Podbeskidzie	11	1	8	2	-2	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.