Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Qarabag and 1.07 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Qarabag to Win

45.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Qarabag win46%

Draw26%

Dynamo Kyiv win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–011.8%
2–19.0%
0–18.7%
2–08.5%

Why the model likes this

Qarabag home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Kyiv away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qarabag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Qarabag and 1.07 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Qarabag

2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-16T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 3-0 (W)

Dynamo Kyiv

2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.