Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Qarabag and 1.07 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.1% probability

High confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Qarabag home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Kyiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qarabag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Qarabag and 1.07 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Qarabag win44%

Draw27%

Dynamo Kyiv win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.9%
0–19.1%
2–18.8%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Qarabag

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)

Dynamo Kyiv

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · Qarabag 2-0 Dynamo Kyiv (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · Qarabag 0-1 Dynamo Kyiv (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.