RB Bragantino vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.02 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives RB Bragantino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

RB Bragantino or Draw

70.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

RB Bragantino win42%

Draw28%

Bahia win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.8%
0–110.4%
0–010.2%
2–18.3%

Why the model likes this

RB Bragantino home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bahia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

RB Bragantino

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-0 (D)

Bahia

2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-21T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-18T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-2 Bahia (Serie A)
2025-11-02T19:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-2 Bahia (Serie A)
2025-06-12T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-3 Bahia (Serie A)
2024-09-01T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-1 Bahia (Serie A)
2024-05-12T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-1 Bahia (Serie A)
2023-08-20T19:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-4 Bahia (Serie A)
2023-04-15T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-1 Bahia (Serie A)
2021-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-1 Bahia (Serie A)
2021-06-06T00:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 3-3 Bahia (Serie A)
2020-11-20T23:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 4-0 Bahia (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
8	RB Bragantino	21	9	4	8	4	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.