Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques · Referee Maguielson Lima Barbosa, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
RB Bragantino vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.99 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives RB Bragantino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RB Bragantino win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Bragantino home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bahia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.3% vs market 43.4%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.4% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 54.0% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.8% | 27.3% | 3.66 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.6% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.6% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.3% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
RB Bragantino
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-3 (L)
Bahia
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-3 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2026-03-18T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-2 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2025-11-02T19:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-2 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2025-06-12T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-3 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2024-09-01T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2024-05-12T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-08-20T19:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-4 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-04-15T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2021-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2021-06-06T00:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 3-3 Bahia (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Bragantino win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.