Shakhter Stadion · Analysis updated 00:39 UTC
Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.60 expected goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.44 for Arys, a combined total of 4.04. That distribution gives Shakhter Karagandy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 92%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 92% favourite still loses or draws roughly 8% of the time.
Model pick
Shakhter Karagandy to Win
92.1% probability
Expected goals
3.60 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
8%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–013.7%
- 4–012.3%
- 2–011.4%
- 5–08.9%
- 1–06.3%
Why the model likes this
Arys away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhter Karagandy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 92%, against 92% / 6% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.60 goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.44 for Arys, a combined 4.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 34%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Shakhter Karagandy
Arys
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Khan Tengri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 49 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 46 | 43 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 38 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Astana II | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 26 |
| 7 | Ekibastuz | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -7 | 26 |
| 8 | Taraz | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Khan Tengri | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | Aktobe Jas | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -29 | 17 |
| 12 | Arys | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -19 | 14 |
| 13 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -18 | 12 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.