Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.89 expected goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.51 for Arys, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Shakhter Karagandy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Shakhter Karagandy win

85.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.89 – 0.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shakhter Karagandy home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhter Karagandy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 10% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.89 goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.51 for Arys, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Shakhter Karagandy win86%

Draw10%

Arys win4%

Double chance 1X

96%

Double chance 12

90%

Double chance X2

15%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

2–014.0%
3–013.5%
4–09.8%
1–09.7%
2–17.1%

Recent form

Shakhter Karagandy

2026-08-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Astana II · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe Jas · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaspij Aktau 2 · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tobol 2 · 2-0 (W)

Arys

2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaiyq · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademiya Ontustik · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe Jas · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspij Aktau 2 · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	26	21	2	3	56	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	26	19	6	1	57	63
3	Turan Turkistan	26	18	3	5	33	57
4	Akademiya Ontustik	26	13	4	9	4	43
5	Astana II	26	12	3	11	2	39
6	Taraz	26	10	7	9	4	37
7	Arys	26	10	3	13	-11	33
8	Jaiyq	26	9	5	12	-9	32
9	Khan Tengri	26	9	5	12	-13	32
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	26	8	4	14	-12	28
11	Ekibastuz	26	7	6	13	-25	27
12	Aktobe Jas	26	6	6	14	-35	24
13	Tobol 2	26	6	5	15	-13	23
14	Yelimay Semey 2	26	3	3	20	-38	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shakhter Karagandy win, at 85.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.