Sportpark De Westmaat · Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Spakenburg vs Barendrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Spakenburg and 1.48 for Barendrecht, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Spakenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Spakenburg to Win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
2.31 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.1%
Why the model likes this
Spakenburg home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barendrecht away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spakenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Spakenburg and 1.48 for Barendrecht, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Spakenburg
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Koninklijke HFC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-0 (D)
Barendrecht
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Quick Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Almere City II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | HHC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Hoek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Kloetinge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Ijsselmeervogels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Kozakken Boys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Katwijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | AFC Amsterdam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Barendrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Koninklijke HFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | GVVV Veenendaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | ROHDA Raalte | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | RKAV Volendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.