Spakenburg vs Barendrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Spakenburg and 1.10 for Barendrecht, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Spakenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Spakenburg home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Barendrecht away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Spakenburg win42%

Draw27%

Barendrecht win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.7%
0–19.7%
0–08.8%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Spakenburg

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Quick Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozakken Boys · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-5 (L)

Barendrecht

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T12:30:00.000Z · Spakenburg 3-0 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
2025-11-15T14:00:00.000Z · Spakenburg 8-0 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
2025-03-15T13:30:00.000Z · Spakenburg 2-2 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
2024-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · Spakenburg 4-1 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
2019-01-26T13:30:00.000Z · Spakenburg 3-0 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
2018-08-25T13:30:00.000Z · Spakenburg 1-0 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	11	9	1	1	24	28
2	De Treffers	11	6	4	1	16	22
3	Ijsselmeervogels	11	7	1	3	6	22
4	Kozakken Boys	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	HHC	11	6	3	2	5	21
6	Barendrecht	11	6	2	3	3	20
7	GVVV Veenendaal	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	RKAV Volendam	11	5	3	3	1	18
9	Spakenburg	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Katwijk	11	4	2	5	-7	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam II	11	3	4	4	4	13
12	Almere City II	11	4	1	6	1	13
13	AFC Amsterdam	11	4	1	6	-4	13
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Hoek	11	2	4	5	-6	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Kloetinge	11	1	4	6	-13	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	11	0	1	10	-24	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.