Bet365 Stadium · Analysis updated 03:31 UTC
Stoke City vs Bolton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Stoke City and 2.00 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Bolton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Bolton to Win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Why the model likes this
Stoke City home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Recent form
Stoke City
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oldham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 1-1 (D)
Bolton
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-0 Bolton (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-12-29T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-0 Bolton (Championship)
- 2018-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-0 Bolton (Championship)
- 2012-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-2 Bolton (Premier League)
- 2011-11-06T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-5 Bolton (Premier League)
- 2011-01-15T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-0 Bolton (Premier League)
- 2010-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-2 Bolton (Premier League)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.