Stoke City vs Bolton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.17 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Stoke City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Stoke City win

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.28 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stoke City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolton away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Stoke City win62%

Draw19%

Bolton win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.5%
2–08.2%
3–17.3%
1–07.2%

Recent form

Stoke City

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 4-0 (W)

Bolton

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-0 Bolton (Friendlies Clubs)
2018-12-29T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-0 Bolton (Championship)
2018-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-0 Bolton (Championship)
2012-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-2 Bolton (Premier League)
2011-11-06T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 0-5 Bolton (Premier League)
2011-01-15T15:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 2-0 Bolton (Premier League)
2010-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · Stoke City 1-2 Bolton (Premier League)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	5	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
4	Stoke City	9	5	1	3	2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	2	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	1	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	-3	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	-3	11
16	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stoke City win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.