Merkur-Arena · Referee A. Hernandez · Analysis updated 23:55 UTC
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.95 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Fenerbahçe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
Fenerbahçe to Win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–36.4%
Why the model likes this
Sturm Graz home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fenerbahçe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.95 for Fenerbahçe, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 4.00 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 4.20 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 1.71 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.17 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 5.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.45 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.35 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.57 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.03 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 11.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.22 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 5.5 | 7.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 5.5 | 1.08 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.53 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.30 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 2.05 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Sturm Graz
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 1-1 (D)
Fenerbahçe
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.