Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.89 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Paris Saint Germain to Win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.04 – 1.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Toulouse win21%

Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.5%
0–110.1%
1–29.9%
0–29.5%
1–36.2%

Why the model likes this

Toulouse home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 21% / 22% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Toulouse and 1.89 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Toulouse

2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)

Paris Saint Germain

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.