Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.75 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toulouse home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Toulouse and 1.75 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Toulouse win35%

Draw23%

Paris Saint Germain win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.9%
1–28.6%
2–17.8%
2–26.8%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Toulouse

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)

Paris Saint Germain

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.