England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 918:45
UxbridgeDWW

18:45 UTC

Tuesday, 29 September 2026

· Analysis updated 05:32 UTC

Uxbridge vs Basingstoke Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Uxbridge and 0.96 for Basingstoke Town, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Uxbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.

Model pick

Uxbridge to Win

60.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.94 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Uxbridge win60%
Draw22%
Basingstoke Town win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams to score53%

Correct score

  • 1–010.7%
  • 2–010.4%
  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 3–06.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Basingstoke Town away threat

    Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Uxbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.94 goals for Uxbridge and 0.96 for Basingstoke Town, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Uxbridge

    Basingstoke Town

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hanwell Town · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 2-4 (L)
    • 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chesham United · 2-6 (L)
    • 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Slough Town · 4-2 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Southern South table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Chertsey Town321047
    2Uxbridge321047
    3Bath City321027
    4Frome Town320156
    5Taunton Town320126
    6Hanworth Villa320126
    7Evesham United320116
    8Hanwell Town312015
    9Yate Town312015
    10Plymouth Parkway311164
    11Sholing311104
    12Chippenham Town3111-14
    13Bracknell Town3111-64
    14Basingstoke Town3102-13
    15Berkhamsted3102-23
    16Poole Town3102-23
    17Chichester City3102-33
    18Havant & Wville3102-33
    19Malvern Town3021-32
    20Gloucester City3012-21
    21Gosport Borough3012-21
    22Wimborne Town3012-31

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.