· Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
Uxbridge vs Basingstoke Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Uxbridge and 1.40 for Basingstoke Town, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Uxbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uxbridge win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uxbridge home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Basingstoke Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Uxbridge
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lewes · 2-1 (W)
Basingstoke Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Havant & Wville · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malvern Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Uxbridge 1-1 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Uxbridge 2-1 Basingstoke Town (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2023-03-18T15:00:00.000Z · Uxbridge 2-3 Basingstoke Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2022-10-22T14:00:00.000Z · Uxbridge 1-2 Basingstoke Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2022-03-05T15:00:00.000Z · Uxbridge 0-2 Basingstoke Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2021-11-09T19:45:00.000Z · Uxbridge 1-1 Basingstoke Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Bath City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth Parkway | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Yate Town | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Evesham United | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sholing | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Basingstoke Town | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uxbridge win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.