Estadio de Mestalla · Analysis updated 05:18 UTC
Valencia vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Valencia and 1.18 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Valencia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Valencia or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Valencia home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valencia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Valencia and 1.18 for Alaves, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Valencia
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 3-0 (W)
Alaves
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.