Valencia vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Valencia and 1.70 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Alaves win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Valencia home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Valencia win18%

Draw24%

Alaves win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.6%
0–211.6%
1–111.2%
1–29.5%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Valencia

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 0-5 (L)

Alaves

2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · Valencia 1-0 Alaves (La Liga)
2026-03-08T20:00:00.000Z · Valencia 3-2 Alaves (La Liga)
2025-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · Valencia 0-0 Alaves (La Liga)
2025-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · Valencia 0-1 Alaves (La Liga)
2024-12-22T13:00:00.000Z · Valencia 2-2 Alaves (La Liga)
2024-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Valencia 0-1 Alaves (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-05-05T16:30:00.000Z · Valencia 0-1 Alaves (La Liga)
2023-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · Valencia 0-1 Alaves (La Liga)
2023-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · Valencia 2-0 Alaves (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-02-13T13:00:00.000Z · Valencia 1-2 Alaves (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alaves win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.