Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Walter Ferretti and 1.18 for Matagalpa, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Walter Ferretti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Walter Ferretti or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Walter Ferretti win44%

Draw26%

Matagalpa win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Matagalpa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Walter Ferretti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Walter Ferretti and 1.18 for Matagalpa, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Walter Ferretti

2026-08-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Rancho Santana · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Estelí · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Matagalpa · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-18T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Jalapa · 0-1 (L)

Matagalpa

2026-08-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Estelí · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs H&H Export · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 4-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2026-04-18T23:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-4 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2026-02-18T23:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-3 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2025-11-06T02:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 1-2 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2025-08-31T21:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 2-2 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2025-04-08T01:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2025-02-09T21:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 1-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2024-11-10T21:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2024-09-15T00:30:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 1-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
2024-03-18T01:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 2-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.