Estadio Olimpico del IND Managua · Analysis updated 12:52 UTC
Walter Ferretti vs Matagalpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for Walter Ferretti and 0.80 for Matagalpa, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Walter Ferretti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Walter Ferretti win
81.6% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Walter Ferretti home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Walter Ferretti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for Walter Ferretti and 0.80 for Matagalpa, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.1%
- 2–010.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–18.0%
- 4–07.6%
Recent form
Walter Ferretti
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Rancho Santana · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Matagalpa · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Diriangén · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 2-2 (D)
Matagalpa
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Managua · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 4-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-18T23:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-4 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2026-02-18T23:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-3 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-11-06T02:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 1-2 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-08-31T21:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 2-2 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-04-08T01:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2025-02-09T21:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 1-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2024-11-10T21:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 0-0 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2024-09-15T00:30:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 1-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
- 2024-03-18T01:00:00.000Z · Walter Ferretti 2-1 Matagalpa (Primera Division)
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 7 | Jalapa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -6 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 9 | Matagalpa | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -22 | 10 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Walter Ferretti win, at 81.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.